Dilnot Warns of Decades-Long Social Care System for England

Prime Minister Andy Burnham's proposed NHS-style social care system for England faces significant challenges. With economist Sir Andrew Dilnot warning that the cost could be 'very substantial'. Dilnot, who led a commission on social care reform 15 years ago, believes the system could take many years, even decades, to implement.

Burnham's proposals aim to provide comprehensive coverage for social care, with the government funding all support. However, Dilnot estimates the cost would be 'well in excess of £18 billion' per year, a figure that could be higher if a Scottish-style system is adopted.

England's proposed universal social care system is likely to be funded by the government. With the Health Foundation estimating an annual expenditure of approximately £18.5 billion. However, some experts, including Burnham, caution that this figure may be on the lower side.

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Burnham has refused to rule out tax rises to fund his plans. However, Dilnot believes the costs would be 'well in excess of £18 billion' per year. The system's funding would need to be carefully managed to ensure it is sustainable.

According to Dilnot, the timeline for implementing the proposed system appears to have shifted even further away from its initial target. With the next general election slated for August 2029. There is still a window of opportunity for Burnham to opt for an earlier vote. Though it remains to be seen if he will seize it.

Despite the challenges, Dilnot believes an NHS-style social care system could be a viable option. However, he also notes that a Scottish-style system could cost half as much and still provide comprehensive coverage.

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Social care in England is not currently free at the point of use, leaving some individuals facing significant bills. Labour MP and former minister Darren Jones has suggested scrapping the pensions triple lock as an option to fund social care reforms.

Sir Andrew Dilnot has expressed support for a comprehensive social care system. However, notes that the cost would need to be carefully managed. He believes a system with a lifetime cap on costs could work well for elderly individuals.

Sir Andrew Dilnot's own commission proposed a lifetime cap of £35,000 for social care costs. The report's recommendations were accepted by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government, led by David Cameron.