India Braces for 15,800 More Heat-Related Deaths in Next 6 Months

India is projected to experience a significant increase in heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027. With approximately 15,800 additional fatalities anticipated. According to a new study from the Climate Impact Lab (CIL), a research initiative of the University of Chicago's Energy Policy Institute.

The report warns that the resulting temperature spike will expose populations to conditions that are 20 years ahead of projected climate change. This led to 44% more 'extremely hot' days than usual.

El Niño, a weather phenomenon characterized by abnormal warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to have a profound impact on India, with the country's mortality estimates derived from CIL's research on the relationship between temperature and excess deaths. The study, which accounted for 24,378 regions worldwide, takes into account local climate, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity to provide a more accurate assessment of heat-related mortality.

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Between December 2026 and February 2027, India is projected to experience around 7,400 additional heat-related deaths, with the country's risk of heat-related mortality remaining elevated throughout the six-month period. The researchers have specifically highlighted India and Pakistan as northern hemisphere countries where heat-related mortality is likely to continue climbing during their summer months, beyond the current forecast horizon.

Responding to queries on the projections for excess deaths in India. Emily Grover-Kopec, co-author of the report and director in the climate and energy practice at Rhodium Group, noted that northern India's winters are typically cold enough to mitigate the impact of heat on mortality. In contrast, southern India's warmer winter temperatures create a perfect storm for heat-related deaths.

This is reflected in India's ranking as the fourth most vulnerable country to projected heat deaths this winter.

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The report estimates that India will be among the hardest-hit countries globally. With 4,51,000 excess deaths anticipated due to the current El Niño episode. The Sahel regions of Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad are expected to bear the heaviest burden, with roughly 66,800 additional deaths.

Meanwhile, the Southeast Asia bloc of the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia is projected to see 19,400 combined excess deaths.

Experts liken the current heatwave to a harbinger of future climate catastrophes, citing the increased warning time it affords countries like India. This window of opportunity is vital, as it allows nations to prepare and respond proactively to the devastating consequences of heat-related mortality, rather than simply reacting to the aftermath.