Saudi Pipeline Progress Sends Gold Prices Spiking
Key Highlights
- Global gold ETFs have now seen inflows for nine straight weeks, with $4.24 billion coming in during the week to September 18 alone.
- China's demand is even more striking with imports through August already crossing 1,000 tons, beating all of 2025 in eight months.
- The Indian Gold market has been more cautious, with domestic prices trading below import parity.
- Expect spot gold in a $4,300-4,420 range this week, with MCX gold between Rs 1,51,900-1,55,800/10gm.
Gold prices are likely to be volatile, as safe-haven demand and rising interest rates exert opposing pressures. According to Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst - Commodities &. Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, the Indian Gold market has been more subdued.
Global gold ETFs have seen nine consecutive weeks of inflows, with $4.24 billion invested during the period ending September 18. Over half of this investment came from the US. China's gold imports have surged, surpassing 1,000 tons through August, exceeding the 2025 target in just eight months.
This increase is attributed to cheaper prices earlier in the year and a firmer yuan.
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News of Saudi Arabia's pipeline restoration triggered a significant gold price spike. With prices rising as much as 2.8% in a single session. However, this surge was short-lived, as Fed officials cautioned that inflation is a broader issue, not solely related to oil.
By Tuesday, gold had settled into a $4,340-4,360 range, as fresh US-Iran diplomatic hopes led to a decline in oil prices, easing rate-hike concerns.
The trend in ETF flows paints a compelling picture.
The Indian Gold market has been more cautious, with domestic prices trading below the import parity threshold. Discounts have widened sharply, from $34 per ounce in July to $78 per ounce by mid-September, driven by old-gold exchange and unofficial supply. This has kept local prices soft, with jewellery demand cooling after August's rally and subsequent pullback leaving buyers hesitant.
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However, wedding-related buying has remained resilient, with a shift towards lighter-weight pieces.
Gold remains caught between safe-haven support and rising-rate pressure, likely to keep prices volatile. Market analysts expect spot gold to range between $4,300 and $4,420 this week. With MCX gold trading between Rs 1,51,900 and Rs 1,55,800 per 10gm.
Gold Technical Levels: $4345/oz, Support: $4,320 / $4,230, Resistance: $4,420 / $4,510, MCX Gold: Rs 1,53,830, Support: Rs 1,51,900 / Rs 1,48,800, Resistance: Rs 1,55,500 / Rs 1,57,500, Silver: International Silver CMP: $66.70/oz, Support: $65.50 / $63.20, Resistance: $68.70 / $70.
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I write about the forces shaping business and the global economy, from startup growth and changing markets to international trade and policy. My work focuses on breaking down complex developments into clear, practical insights and understanding what they could mean for businesses, investors, and the wider economy.
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