The near-term outlook for gold and silver remains bearish, according to Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.

A key trigger for this change was the Jackson Hole meeting, which altered the Fed's rate outlook and exerted heavy selling pressure on gold and silver since Friday. Spot gold has slipped from a three-month high of $4,697 to hover below $4,300, a decline of almost 9% from its peak.

Sell-off accelerated fed chair kevin

The sell-off was accelerated after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated his focus on fighting inflation, while renewed tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher and lifted expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed hike this month to nearly 70%.

With global bond yields rising and the dollar strengthening, gold is facing near-term pressure as higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

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In the domestic markets, there were rumours last week that the Indian government might cut the import duty on gold and silver. MCX Silver, which was trading at a premium to international markets, immediately moved to a discount, but prices have since moved back into premium territory in the absence of any official announcement.

Moreover, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s comments yesterday, urging people to avoid buying Gold unless necessary, have also impacted sentiment. While this comment is unlikely to be a major driver of international gold prices, it could weigh on domestic sentiment and jewellery-related demand expectations in the near term.

This week's key data for gold and silver will include the US Payrolls report on Friday, followed Fundamentally, the outlook for gold and silver remains cautiously bearish in the near term, with the Fed’s rate path being the key driver.

Higher rate-hike expectations, rising US Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar are likely to keep precious metals under pressure. However, the recent sharp correction has already priced in a significant part of the hawkish shift.

A weaker US labour market or softer inflation could quickly reverse rate expectations and support a recovery in bullion. Technically, gold is currently hovering near the key pivot level of $4,300/oz, with a close below this level potentially pushing prices lower towards $4,200–$4,220/oz.

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Any headline-driven rebound from this zone could push prices higher towards $4,450/oz. The broader range for Spot Gold is expected to be $4,200–$4,450/oz from a one-week perspective, with MCX offering Rs 1,47,700-1,48,000 as a good level to accumulate gold.

For silver, the outlook remains more volatile, influenced The current International Silver CMP is $63.70/oz, with support at $61.50 / $60.00 and resistance at $65.50/ $68.50.

MCX Silver CMP is Rs 2,26,850, with support at Rs 2,20,000/ Rs 2,14,000 and resistance at Rs 2,52,700 / Rs 2,78,400.