Gold Slides to One-Month Low Amid US-Iran Tensions and Fed Rate Hike

Gold prices have taken a hit, falling to a one-month low of $4,253 on Monday, as escalating US-Iran tensions and Saudi supply disruptions pushed Brent oil prices above $108 a barrel.

The sell-off deepened as the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through the psychologically important 5% mark. Briefly touching 5.04%, its highest level since 2007, sharply raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

The dominant catalyst is today’s FOMC decision and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. The rate hike itself is largely priced in and discounted; what matters more is the guidance.

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If Warsh signals this is the start of a broader tightening cycle, gold faces a fresh real-yield headwind. If he frames it as insurance against oil-driven inflation, bullion could stabilize.

Fed guidance remains the key swing factor for gold's near-term outlook, which stays cautiously bearish. That shared, gold has held up better than some expected.

Persistent fiscal concerns and elevated long-term yields are lending support. Meanwhile, central-bank buying and dollar-debasement themes remain intact drivers for the medium term.

Gold is hovering near the vital $4,300 pivot. Sustaining below $4,300 could push prices toward $4,250-4,190, while a rebound could test $4,450-4,500.

The broader one-week range for spot gold is seen at $4,200-4,450/ oz while for MCX Gold broader range is Rs 146,800-Rs 1,55,500 per 10 gm.

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Silver is trading near its own vital levels. Sustaining below $62.50 could push prices toward $60.00-61.00, while a rebound could test $66.60-$68.50.

The broader one-week range for spot silver is seen at $64.60-$66.60/ oz while for MCX Silver broader range is Rs 2,35,120-Rs 2,49,300 per 10 gm.

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