Rooftop solar market has potential to reach 132 GW by 2030: ISMA

India’s rooftop solar market is poised for significant growth. With the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA) projecting a capacity of 132 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. The current installed capacity stands at 17 GW, with an annual demand outlook ranging between 9-15 GW till 2030.

Ismas Residential Rooftop Solar Market

ISMA’s report on the residential rooftop solar market. Titled Market Sizing and Growth Outlook, highlights the potential for domestically manufactured components to create new demand. This includes solar cells, modules, inverters, and balance-of-system components.

Govt’s flagship scheme, PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana (PMSGMBY), has played a vital role in expanding residential rooftop solar adoption. Launched in February 2024, the scheme aims to bring rooftop solar to one crore Indian homes by March 2027.

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Total Number Rooftop Solar Installations

The total number of rooftop solar installations has reached 47.8 lakh with a total installed capacity of 16.8 GW, benefiting nearly 56.9 lakh families. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy has disbursed over Rs 31,515 crore as central financial assistance to support the scheme.

ISMA general secretary Amit Manohar said the PM Surya Ghar scheme has been instrumental in expanding residential rooftop solar adoption. “As the current programme approaches the March 2027 deadline, providing early clarity on its next phase would help maintain market continuity and provide greater visibility to consumers and industry stakeholders,” he added.

ISMA’s report noted that policy continuity beyond March 2027 will be important to sustain demand and provide manufacturers with the visibility required to plan investments. Capacity expansion, and domestic supply chains. The report highlighted the need for clarity on the next phase of the PM Surya Ghar scheme by December 2026.

ISMA’s assessment is based on national residential electricity consumption, household housing characteristics, and distribution utility tariffs. The report also highlighted the “affordability effect”, showing that rooftop solar adoption is increasingly expanding beyond states where its economics are naturally strongest.

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The growth outlook for India's rooftop solar market is promising, driven by government initiatives like PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana. The report projects an annual demand of 9-15 GW till 2030, creating a significant opportunity for domestically manufactured components.

ISMA’s forecast suggests that the rooftop solar market will play a vital role in India's transition to renewable energy. With the government's support and policy continuity, the potential for growth is substantial.

In conclusion, ISMA's projection of 132 GW by 2030 highlights the significant potential of India's rooftop solar market. The PM Surya Ghar scheme has been instrumental in expanding adoption. And policy continuity will be vital to sustain demand and support domestic manufacturing.