JJ Bleday vs Esmerlyn Valdez MLB Home Run Props

Major League Baseball is set to kick off another exciting weekend, and bettors have their sights set on two outfielders with impressive home run props.

Key Development

The season's record for touted home run props stands at 20-75, with three no-bets. However, the profits from these long-shot wagers sit at $350, making them an attractive option for those looking to boost their season-ending returns.

Friday's robust MLB slate features two outfielders capable of muscling up for a home run tonight, and their odds are tantalizing. Hitting on either home run prop would greatly enhance the odds of the season ending in the black for the home run bets.

JJ Bleday: A Rock-Solid Matchup

JJ Bleday has hit 20 home runs this year, tying his previous career high in substantially fewer plate appearances. The left-handed-hitting outfielder has done most of his homer damage with the platoon advantage and in his homer-friendly home ballpark.

Bleday's matchup is rock-solid today, as Sandy Alcantara's 1.09 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) this season are tied for the 10th-highest mark among Friday's probable starters. The 30-year-old righty has also been markedly more homer-prone on the road than at home, allowing 13 home runs in 83.1 innings on the road and only four in 80.1 innings at home.

Esmerlyn Valdez: A Challenging but Attractive Option

Esmerlyn Valdez has a potentially tricky matchup tonight, as Jake Bennett has permitted only five home runs at 0.59 HR/9 in 13 starts this season. However, the 25-year-old southpaw has allowed all five home runs to 225 right-handed batters faced, struck out only 16.9% of them and allowed a 17.3% line-drive rate, 39.3% fly-ball rate and 14.7-degree launch angle to righties.

Valdez's sample size for batted-ball data is small, but it's impressive. Among 448 batters with at least 50 batted balls this year, Valdez is sixth in barrels per plate appearance rate (10.8%), first in barrels per batted-ball event rate (22.7%), tied for 41st in hard-hit rate (48.5%), and tied for the 39th-steepest launch angle (20.6 degrees).