North Dakota State and Sacramento State, both FCS programs, make their FBS debuts today in the Mountain West and MAC conferences, respectively. The betting market has very different expectations for them, with North Dakota State being a 6.5-point favorite against Jacksonville State and Sacramento State being a 9.5-point underdog against Eastern Michigan.

A regression analysis using five-year performance and postseason success as factors explains 37.4% of the variation in first-year FBS winning percentage across historical samples. The model estimates that every additional 10 percentage points of winning percentage in a team’s final FCS season is associated with about 5.2 additional percentage points of first-year FBS winning percentage.

Recent FCS Records and FBS Success

North Dakota State finished its final FCS season 12-1, a .923 winning percentage, and easily satisfy the deep-playoff criterion after multiple championship and semifinal appearances over the previous five seasons. The model estimates a 71.6% first-year FBS winning percentage for North Dakota State, equivalent to about 8.6 wins over a 12-game schedule.

The regression analysis suggests that recent records can be a good indicator of FBS success. While the results should not be taken as forecasts, they do provide some insight into the potential readiness of these programs to compete at the FBS level.

The difference in expectations between the betting market and the model’s estimates highlights the importance of considering multiple factors when assessing a team's chances.

That agreement does not make the regression a substitute for the much broader information incorporated into betting markets.

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North Dakota State and Sacramento State

It does suggest that a program’s performance immediately before moving up, combined with evidence of recent postseason success, captures a meaningful amount of its readiness to compete at the FBS level.

Two programs make their FBS debuts today, and the betting market has very different expectations for them. North Dakota State opens its first FBS season at home against Jacksonville State. Despite being the newcomer, NDSU is a 6.5-point favorite.

Sacramento State, which also moves up from FCS this year, opens at Eastern Michigan as a 9.5-point underdog.

That is a 17-point difference between two programs making the same formal jump in competition. Their recent histories in FCS competition help explain why. North Dakota State has spent more than a decade as the standard in FCS football.

The Bison finished their 22-year FCS tenure with a 50-5 record in the playoffs , including 10 national championships. They went 12-1 last season before beginning the move to FBS. Sacramento State has also had strong seasons, including a 12-1 run to the FCS quarterfinals in 2022, but its recent results have been less consistent.