India Faces Rain Deficit in Southwest Monsoon's Final Leg

The southwest monsoon is set to enter its final leg soon, with nearly 35 per cent of India's geographical area having experienced a significant rain deficit. Data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that this includes 412 districts across 14 states and Union Territories in the south peninsula, northeast, and some parts of eastern and northwest regions.

The IMD's rainfall data demonstrated that countrywide rainfall during the season (since June 1) was 554.2 mm, which was 13 per cent below normal for this time of the year. Notably, the cumulative rainfall departure from normal has consistently remained negative throughout this season. For related coverage, explore our detailed analysis on Technology and Digital Systems.

Key Analysis and Detailed Timeline

Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada in Maharashtra, Goa, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Gujarat will experience widespread heavy spells till the end of this month, according to the forecast.

States/UTs and rainfall deficit during June-August 24 Meghalaya -58% Bihar and Manipur -42% Arunachal Pradesh -40% Andhra Pradesh -39% Goa and Punjab -33% Puducherry -32% Lakshadweep -27% Assam -24% Kerala -23% Rajasthan and Karnataka -22% Mizoram -21% Source : IMD

With the southwest monsoon set to enter its final leg soon, nearly 35 per cent of India’s geographical area has experienced a significant rain deficit, data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows. This includes 412 districts across 14 states and Union Territories in the south peninsula, northeast, and some parts of eastern and northwest regions.

Assam, which faced one of the worst floods in recent years, reported rainfall deficits in 19 of its 35 districts. The IMD's rainfall data demonstrated that countrywide rainfall during the season (since June 1) was 554.2 mm, which was 13 per cent below normal for this time of the year.

Notably, the cumulative rainfall departure from normal has consistently remained negative throughout this season. The IMD has stated that rainfall activity in July and August largely remained prominent over central India regions, between Odisha and Gujarat. The rainfall was mostly due to the recurrent development of low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal and their subsequent landward movement.

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"The spatial distribution of the rainfall has been largely skewed, especially at district levels," stated O P Sreejith, a senior meteorologist at the IMD. For instance, Goa's normal rainfall till the third week of August is 2562mm, whereas it has recorded only 1713.2mm this season (till August 24), taking the deficit to 33 per cent.

Similarly, Kerala (normal rainfall 1671.4 mm) has suffered a 23 per cent deficit at 1283.3 mm. Punjab, which has a normal rainfall of 338.2 mm, has recorded a 33 per cent deficit with 226.9 mm. Rajasthan's normal rainfall is 345mm, but the desert state, where the monsoon arrives last and exits first, has received 268.3mm (-22 per cent).

District-wise rain performance In Meghalaya (-58 per cent below normal), the southwest Khasi Hills district has recorded excess rainfall while all the other 10 districts are either in the rainfall deficit or large deficit category (rainfall -60 to -99 per cent below normal). Bihar’s Khagaria, Lakhisarai, and Siwan have received normal rainfall, and the remaining 35 districts are experiencing deficient rain this season.

All districts of Andhra Pradesh (including the Yanam and Rayalaseema regions) remain in a rain deficit. A contrasting picture prevails in the neighbouring Odisha, where all 30 districts have received normal or above rainfall this season.

The prevailing low-pressure system over Jharkhand will keep the monsoon active over West Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh till August 29, as the IMD has forecast the system to move further north-westwards in the coming days. Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada in Maharashtra, Goa, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Gujarat will experience widespread heavy spells till the end of this month, according to the forecast.

States/UTs and rainfall deficit during June-August 24 Meghalaya -58% Bihar and Manipur -42% Arunachal Pradesh -40% Andhra Pradesh -39% Goa and Punjab -33% Puducherry -32% Lakshadweep -27% Assam -24% Kerala -23% Rajasthan and Karnataka -22% Mizoram -21% Source : IMD

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